Built 2026-07-12 · gates as of 2026-07-12 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-130.36
10 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$900.74
38 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$-501.16
10 closed trades
Review
19d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-130.36
Forward max drawdown
$277.07 / $500 limit
Forward trades
10
Daily runs logged
10
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 14 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD SETUP
63,779.50
90d · ATR 3.4%/day · vol 26%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 64442.600000; sell stop 63779.400000
ETH/USD quiet
1,786.52
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 38%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD SETUP
76.74
90d · ATR 5.3%/day · vol 45%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 78.780000; sell stop 76.710000
XRP/USD quiet
1.10
90d · ATR 4.1%/day · vol 32%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 6.7%/day · vol 67%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,620.25
90d · ATR 1.3%/day · vol 13%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 7602.500000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 7629.000000 / sell stop 7232.000000 (20-day channel)
WTI Crude Oil SETUP
71.41
90d · ATR 5.0%/day · vol 43%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 73.170004; sell stop 70.759997
Natural Gas SETUP
2.94
90d · ATR 4.8%/day · vol 42%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 3.442000 / sell stop 2.873000 (20-day channel)
Gold SETUP
4,104.10
90d · ATR 2.1%/day · vol 27%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 4125.899805; sell stop 4090.500098
Silver SETUP
59.81
90d · ATR 3.8%/day · vol 54%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 60.350001; sell stop 59.715001
Copper quiet
6.23
90d · ATR 1.9%/day · vol 27%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
30-Year Treasury Bond SETUP
111.16
90d · ATR 0.7%/day · vol 7%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 114.656250 / sell stop 110.750000 (20-day channel)
10-Year Treasury Note SETUP
109.03
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 110.343750 / sell stop 108.781250 (20-day channel)
Corn quiet
438.00
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Soybeans quiet
1,196.50
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Wheat SETUP
632.00
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 27%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 618.250000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 635.000000 / sell stop 567.750000 (20-day channel)
Coffee quiet
343.00
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 80%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
79.92
90d · ATR 2.0%/day · vol 31%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 77.959999
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 79.679998 / sell stop 70.650004 (20-day channel)
Sugar SETUP
14.88
90d · ATR 2.6%/day · vol 26%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (14.880000)
Live Cattle quiet
235.20
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 25%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Lean Hogs quiet
94.78
90d · ATR 1.3%/day · vol 19%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Euro FX quiet
1.14
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Japanese Yen SETUP
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 0.006201
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA quiet
407.76
90d · ATR 4.6%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
NVDA SETUP
210.96
90d · ATR 3.1%/day · vol 35%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 214.000005 / sell stop 189.790003 (20-day channel)
MU quiet
979.30
90d · ATR 9.8%/day · vol 111%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD quiet
557.89
90d · ATR 6.7%/day · vol 77%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR quiet
94.64
90d · ATR 9.7%/day · vol 93%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
159.07
90d · ATR 6.5%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
126.79
90d · ATR 5.3%/day · vol 58%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI quiet
28.31
90d · ATR 8.0%/day · vol 92%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA quiet
12.60
90d · ATR 10.7%/day · vol 71%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
HOOD quiet
111.97
90d · ATR 6.5%/day · vol 65%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-11 · equity $-130.36 · max drawdown $277.07 of $500 kill-switch ($222.93 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (10)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1786.52 | time_exit | $42.09 (+0.42R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1786.52 | time_exit | $42.09 (+0.42R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165644 | time_exit | $-105.84 (-1.06R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-12)
| Market | Strategy | Side | Type | Trigger | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 64442.600000; sell stop 63779.400000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 78.780000; sell stop 76.710000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 38 trades, net $900.74
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-10 · equity $900.74 · max drawdown $500.72 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 7 | 57% | $229.92 | 0% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 6 | 83% | $535.71 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 7 | 57% | $118.92 | 0% |
| The Anti | 1 | 0% | $-0.00 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 5 | 0% | $-288.24 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 12 | 75% | $304.43 | 0% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 10 trades, net $-501.16
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-10 · equity $-501.16 · max drawdown $501.16 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 1 | 100% | $33.21 | 9% |
| ID/NR4 | 5 | 0% | $-317.31 | — |
| The Anti | 1 | 0% | $-24.30 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-134.15 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 2 | 0% | $-58.61 | — |
TradingView live history
loading
open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | PASS | $277.07 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | PASS | $-113.41 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | pending | 10 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-130.36 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 10 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 2 | 50% | $-71.32 | — |
| ID/NR4 | 7 | 43% | $-26.93 | 126% |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-32.12 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 10 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.