Built 2026-07-21 · gates as of 2026-07-21 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-912.69
22 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$2,362.65
85 closed trades · ex bad-data $2,375.00 (1 voided)
Stocks WATCH
$-1,447.46
33 closed trades
Review
10d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-912.69
Forward max drawdown
$1,059.39 / $500 limit
Forward trades
22
Daily runs logged
19
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 14 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD SETUP
65,215.70
90d · ATR 2.6%/day · vol 24%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 65757.100000 / sell stop 57739.900000 (20-day channel)
ETH/USD quiet
1,903.56
90d · ATR 3.7%/day · vol 37%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD quiet
77.79
90d · ATR 3.7%/day · vol 31%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD quiet
1.11
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 32%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 6.0%/day · vol 63%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,497.75
90d · ATR 1.2%/day · vol 11%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (7497.750000)
WTI Crude Oil SETUP
82.49
90d · ATR 4.0%/day · vol 50%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 81.269997
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 82.770002 / sell stop 67.030001 (20-day channel)
Natural Gas quiet
2.91
90d · ATR 4.5%/day · vol 39%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Gold quiet
4,012.70
90d · ATR 2.0%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Silver SETUP
56.04
90d · ATR 3.7%/day · vol 44%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 66.259997 / sell stop 55.009999 (20-day channel)
Copper SETUP
6.22
90d · ATR 1.9%/day · vol 25%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (6.220000)
30-Year Treasury Bond quiet
111.41
90d · ATR 0.8%/day · vol 7%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
10-Year Treasury Note quiet
109.27
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Corn quiet
444.75
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Soybeans SETUP
1,204.50
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1210.250000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat SETUP
682.75
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 35%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 685.250000
Coffee quiet
304.70
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 87%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
77.07
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 33%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (77.070000)
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 77.590002; sell stop 76.629999
Sugar quiet
14.82
90d · ATR 2.7%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle SETUP
220.70
90d · ATR 1.4%/day · vol 13%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (220.699997)
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 243.775000 / sell stop 220.475000 (20-day channel)
Lean Hogs SETUP
87.95
90d · ATR 1.0%/day · vol 11%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 88.400000 / sell stop 84.449991 (20-day channel)
Euro FX quiet
1.14
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 4%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Japanese Yen quiet
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA SETUP
369.57
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 60%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 432.869985 / sell stop 368.590006 (20-day channel)
NVDA quiet
203.28
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 37%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MU SETUP
865.46
90d · ATR 10.7%/day · vol 100%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 901.009878; sell stop 858.890024
AMD quiet
503.57
90d · ATR 7.7%/day · vol 70%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR quiet
97.82
90d · ATR 7.7%/day · vol 90%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
160.43
90d · ATR 5.8%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
134.85
90d · ATR 5.1%/day · vol 48%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI SETUP
23.83
90d · ATR 7.6%/day · vol 59%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 24.549900; sell stop 23.761999
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 24.549900; sell stop 23.761999
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 36.809999 / sell stop 23.369999 (20-day channel)
MARA quiet
11.67
90d · ATR 11.1%/day · vol 79%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
HOOD SETUP
99.28
90d · ATR 6.7%/day · vol 68%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 102.490003; sell stop 98.600001
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-20 · equity $-912.69 · max drawdown $1,059.40 of $500 kill-switch ($-559.40 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (22)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 75.58 → 75.58 | trailing_stop | $-35.09 (-0.35R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1865.29 → 1865.29 | trailing_stop | $-33.75 (-0.34R) |
| 2026-07-20 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 65513.2 → 65215.7 | time_exit | $-17.38 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.168558 → 0.163743 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-117.94 (-1.18R) |
| 2026-07-18 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1856.49 → 1856.49 | trailing_stop | $-10.96 (-0.11R) |
| 2026-07-17 | BTC | The Anti | short | 63705 → 63907 | no_losing_overnight | $-29.51 (-0.30R) |
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-21)
No orders for the next session — no pattern fired. Standing aside is a position.
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 85 trades, net $2,362.65 · ex bad-data $2,375.00 (1 voided)
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-17 · equity $2,362.65 · max drawdown $1,338.60 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 25 | 28% | $-651.41 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 8 | 62% | $1,268.49 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 14 | 29% | $-24.63 | — |
| The Anti | 5 | 20% | $34.99 | 4% |
| Turtle Soup | 9 | 22% | $1,443.81 | 1% |
| Turtle Trend | 24 | 46% | $291.38 | 1% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 33 trades, net $-1,447.46
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-20 · equity $-1,447.46 · max drawdown $1,768.35 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 8 | 75% | $39.65 | 43% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 3 | 33% | $144.70 | 22% |
| ID/NR4 | 8 | 0% | $-586.78 | — |
| The Anti | 3 | 0% | $-56.79 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 5 | 0% | $-1,059.26 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 6 | 67% | $71.01 | 18% |
TradingView live history
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open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $1059.39 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | PASS | 19 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-912.69 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 22 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 3 | 33% | $-93.07 | — |
| ID/NR4 | 11 | 27% | $-279.00 | — |
| The Anti | 4 | 0% | $-231.37 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 4 | 0% | $-309.26 | 1608% |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 19 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 888 | $37,875 | 28.0% | 2.412775 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-20 | 886 | $37,942 | 28.2% | 2.420569 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-19 | 884 | $37,853 | 28.1% | 2.417242 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-18 | 884 | $37,871 | 28.2% | 2.417919 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-17 | 882 | $37,865 | 28.1% | 2.418253 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-16 | 883 | $37,917 | 28.2% | 2.420206 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.