Built 2026-07-14 · gates as of 2026-07-14 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$169.09
15 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$2,640.18
41 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$-482.89
12 closed trades
Review
17d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$169.09
Forward max drawdown
$535.73 / $500 limit
Forward trades
15
Daily runs logged
12
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 15 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD quiet
62,253.50
90d · ATR 3.2%/day · vol 24%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ETH/USD quiet
1,774.65
90d · ATR 4.2%/day · vol 34%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD quiet
74.90
90d · ATR 5.2%/day · vol 43%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD quiet
1.07
90d · ATR 4.1%/day · vol 30%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.16
90d · ATR 6.7%/day · vol 66%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,620.25
90d · ATR 1.3%/day · vol 13%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 7602.500000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 7629.000000 / sell stop 7232.000000 (20-day channel)
WTI Crude Oil SETUP
71.41
90d · ATR 5.0%/day · vol 43%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 73.170004; sell stop 70.759997
Natural Gas SETUP
2.94
90d · ATR 4.8%/day · vol 42%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 3.442000 / sell stop 2.873000 (20-day channel)
Gold SETUP
4,104.10
90d · ATR 2.1%/day · vol 27%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 4125.899805; sell stop 4090.500098
Silver SETUP
59.81
90d · ATR 3.8%/day · vol 54%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 60.350001; sell stop 59.715001
Copper quiet
6.23
90d · ATR 1.9%/day · vol 27%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
30-Year Treasury Bond SETUP
111.16
90d · ATR 0.7%/day · vol 7%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 114.656250 / sell stop 110.750000 (20-day channel)
10-Year Treasury Note SETUP
109.03
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 110.343750 / sell stop 108.781250 (20-day channel)
Corn quiet
438.00
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Soybeans quiet
1,196.50
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Wheat SETUP
632.00
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 27%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 618.250000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 635.000000 / sell stop 567.750000 (20-day channel)
Coffee quiet
330.50
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 82%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
81.49
90d · ATR 2.1%/day · vol 32%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 79.679998 / sell stop 70.650004 (20-day channel)
Sugar SETUP
14.76
90d · ATR 2.6%/day · vol 26%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (14.760000)
Live Cattle SETUP
234.95
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 25%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 236.525000; sell stop 234.600000
Lean Hogs quiet
98.15
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Euro FX quiet
1.14
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Japanese Yen SETUP
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 0.006201
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA quiet
394.76
90d · ATR 4.7%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
NVDA quiet
203.53
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 38%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MU SETUP
937.00
90d · ATR 10.4%/day · vol 112%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (937.000000)
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1255.010000 / sell stop 891.649973 (20-day channel)
AMD quiet
534.39
90d · ATR 7.0%/day · vol 78%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR quiet
92.10
90d · ATR 9.6%/day · vol 92%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
157.37
90d · ATR 6.4%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
130.04
90d · ATR 5.2%/day · vol 58%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI quiet
27.66
90d · ATR 7.9%/day · vol 90%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA SETUP
12.19
90d · ATR 10.9%/day · vol 70%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 16.440000 / sell stop 11.580000 (20-day channel)
HOOD SETUP
109.86
90d · ATR 6.5%/day · vol 65%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (109.860001)
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 113.669897; sell stop 108.829996
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-13 · equity $169.09 · max drawdown $535.73 of $500 kill-switch ($-35.73 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (15)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 74.9 | time_exit | $68.40 (+0.68R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1774.65 | time_exit | $489.71 (+4.90R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-14)
No orders for the next session — no pattern fired. Standing aside is a position.
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 41 trades, net $2,640.18
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-13 · equity $2,640.18 · max drawdown $500.72 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 8 | 50% | $199.17 | 0% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 6 | 83% | $1,668.10 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 7 | 57% | $829.44 | 0% |
| The Anti | 1 | 0% | $-0.00 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 6 | 0% | $-292.79 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 13 | 69% | $236.28 | 1% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 12 trades, net $-482.89
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-13 · equity $-482.89 · max drawdown $482.89 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 3 | 33% | $26.00 | 29% |
| ID/NR4 | 5 | 0% | $-317.31 | — |
| The Anti | 1 | 0% | $-24.30 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-134.15 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 2 | 0% | $-33.13 | — |
TradingView live history
loading
open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $535.73 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | PASS | $-124.56 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | pending | 12 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | PASS | $169.09 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 15 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 3 | 67% | $-5.40 | 110% |
| ID/NR4 | 8 | 38% | $-92.22 | 202% |
| The Anti | 2 | 0% | $-190.90 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 2 | 50% | $457.59 | 18% |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 12 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.