Built 2026-07-24 · gates as of 2026-07-24 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-1,141.08
24 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$2,430.46
87 closed trades · ex bad-data $2,442.81 (1 voided)
Stocks WATCH
$911.67
49 closed trades
Review
7d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-1,141.08
Forward max drawdown
$1,341.68 / $500 limit
Forward trades
24
Daily runs logged
22
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 12 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD quiet
65,050.10
90d · ATR 2.6%/day · vol 24%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ETH/USD quiet
1,877.03
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 33%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD quiet
75.82
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 27%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD quiet
1.11
90d · ATR 3.2%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 5.1%/day · vol 42%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,497.75
90d · ATR 1.2%/day · vol 11%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (7497.750000)
WTI Crude Oil quiet
86.83
90d · ATR 3.9%/day · vol 45%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Natural Gas quiet
2.91
90d · ATR 4.5%/day · vol 39%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Gold quiet
4,012.70
90d · ATR 2.0%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Silver SETUP
56.04
90d · ATR 3.7%/day · vol 44%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 66.259997 / sell stop 55.009999 (20-day channel)
Copper SETUP
6.22
90d · ATR 1.9%/day · vol 25%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (6.220000)
30-Year Treasury Bond quiet
111.41
90d · ATR 0.8%/day · vol 7%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
10-Year Treasury Note quiet
109.27
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Corn quiet
444.75
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Soybeans SETUP
1,204.50
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1210.250000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat SETUP
682.75
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 35%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 685.250000
Coffee quiet
304.70
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 87%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
77.07
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 33%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (77.070000)
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 77.590002; sell stop 76.629999
Sugar quiet
14.82
90d · ATR 2.7%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle SETUP
220.70
90d · ATR 1.4%/day · vol 13%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (220.699997)
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 243.775000 / sell stop 220.475000 (20-day channel)
Lean Hogs SETUP
87.95
90d · ATR 1.0%/day · vol 11%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 88.400000 / sell stop 84.449991 (20-day channel)
Euro FX quiet
1.14
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 3%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Japanese Yen SETUP
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 0.006158; sell stop 0.006140
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 0.006228 / sell stop 0.006138 (20-day channel)
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA SETUP
319.69
90d · ATR 6.2%/day · vol 79%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One long — Next session buy stop at 368.600006
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 432.869985 / sell stop 315.724985 (20-day channel)
NVDA quiet
208.76
90d · ATR 3.4%/day · vol 35%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MU quiet
990.21
90d · ATR 8.0%/day · vol 83%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD quiet
539.69
90d · ATR 7.2%/day · vol 73%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR SETUP
93.63
90d · ATR 7.5%/day · vol 78%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 92.329996
COIN quiet
161.16
90d · ATR 6.1%/day · vol 64%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
123.37
90d · ATR 5.6%/day · vol 47%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI quiet
31.20
90d · ATR 6.4%/day · vol 94%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA quiet
12.77
90d · ATR 9.3%/day · vol 82%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
HOOD SETUP
101.58
90d · ATR 6.4%/day · vol 68%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (101.580002)
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-23 · equity $-1,141.08 · max drawdown $1,341.68 of $500 kill-switch ($-841.68 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (24)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | XRP | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 1.12832 → 1.10721 | time_exit | $53.88 (+0.54R) |
| 2026-07-22 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1944.48 → 1944.48 | trailing_stop | $-159.99 (-1.60R) |
| 2026-07-21 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 65513.2 → 65513.2 | trailing_stop | $-139.68 (-1.40R) |
| 2026-07-20 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 75.58 → 75.58 | trailing_stop | $-35.09 (-0.35R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1865.29 → 1865.29 | trailing_stop | $-33.75 (-0.34R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.168558 → 0.163743 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-117.94 (-1.18R) |
| 2026-07-18 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1856.49 → 1856.49 | trailing_stop | $-10.96 (-0.11R) |
| 2026-07-17 | BTC | The Anti | short | 63705 → 63907 | no_losing_overnight | $-29.51 (-0.30R) |
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-24)
No orders for the next session — no pattern fired. Standing aside is a position.
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 87 trades, net $2,430.46 · ex bad-data $2,442.81 (1 voided)
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-22 · equity $2,430.46 · max drawdown $1,356.24 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 25 | 28% | $-651.41 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 8 | 62% | $1,351.08 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 14 | 29% | $-35.24 | — |
| The Anti | 5 | 20% | $34.99 | 4% |
| Turtle Soup | 10 | 20% | $1,362.33 | 1% |
| Turtle Trend | 25 | 48% | $368.68 | 1% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 49 trades, net $911.67
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-23 · equity $911.67 · max drawdown $1,807.60 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 9 | 78% | $165.72 | 17% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 5 | 60% | $1,015.27 | 7% |
| ID/NR4 | 13 | 23% | $256.57 | 40% |
| The Anti | 6 | 33% | $9.07 | 79% |
| Turtle Soup | 7 | 29% | $-199.81 | 242% |
| Turtle Trend | 9 | 11% | $-335.17 | — |
TradingView live history
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open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $1341.68 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | PASS | 22 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-1141.08 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 24 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 4 | 50% | $-39.19 | 192% |
| ID/NR4 | 11 | 27% | $-279.00 | — |
| The Anti | 4 | 0% | $-231.37 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 5 | 0% | $-591.55 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 22 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 890 | $37,828 | 28.0% | 2.410999 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-23 | 889 | $37,753 | 27.9% | 2.408225 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-22 | 889 | $38,008 | 28.0% | 2.41771 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-21 | 888 | $37,875 | 28.0% | 2.412775 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-20 | 886 | $37,942 | 28.2% | 2.420569 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-19 | 884 | $37,853 | 28.1% | 2.417242 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-18 | 884 | $37,871 | 28.2% | 2.417919 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-17 | 882 | $37,865 | 28.1% | 2.418253 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-16 | 883 | $37,917 | 28.2% | 2.420206 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.