Built 2026-08-02 · gates as of 2026-08-02 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-1,504.79
36 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$2,513.77
147 closed trades · ex bad-data $2,191.58 (1 voided)
Stocks WATCH
$712.73
80 closed trades
Review
-2d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-1,504.79
Forward max drawdown
$1,866.00 / $500 limit
Forward trades
36
Daily runs logged
31
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 31 markets scanned, 10 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD SETUP
62,760.00
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 26%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 62200.400000
ETH/USD quiet
1,843.51
90d · ATR 3.6%/day · vol 38%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD quiet
71.88
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 30%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD SETUP
1.06
90d · ATR 3.0%/day · vol 30%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1.164250 / sell stop 1.044280 (20-day channel)
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 4.8%/day · vol 46%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 16 markets
E-mini S&P 500 quiet
7,519.25
90d · ATR 1.2%/day · vol 12%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
WTI Crude Oil quiet
84.67
90d · ATR 5.5%/day · vol 62%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Natural Gas quiet
2.75
90d · ATR 4.2%/day · vol 35%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Gold quiet
4,049.10
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 21%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Silver SETUP
57.59
90d · ATR 2.8%/day · vol 39%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 59.205001; sell stop 57.335000
Copper quiet
6.44
90d · ATR 1.7%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
30-Year Treasury Bond SETUP
108.31
90d · ATR 0.9%/day · vol 7%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 112.750000 / sell stop 108.218750 (20-day channel)
10-Year Treasury Note SETUP
108.00
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 4%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 109.796875 / sell stop 107.968750 (20-day channel)
Corn SETUP
440.75
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 25%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (440.750000)
Soybeans SETUP
1,172.00
90d · ATR 1.7%/day · vol 20%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (1172.000000)
Wheat quiet
639.25
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 39%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Sugar quiet
14.66
90d · ATR 2.1%/day · vol 18%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle quiet
231.75
90d · ATR 1.4%/day · vol 14%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Lean Hogs quiet
98.85
90d · ATR 1.1%/day · vol 14%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Euro FX SETUP
1.15
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1.155100 / sell stop 1.136450 (20-day channel)
Japanese Yen quiet
0.01
90d · ATR 0.6%/day · vol 10%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA quiet
311.21
90d · ATR 5.0%/day · vol 62%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
NVDA quiet
200.75
90d · ATR 3.9%/day · vol 42%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MU quiet
823.03
90d · ATR 10.2%/day · vol 109%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD quiet
476.15
90d · ATR 8.3%/day · vol 82%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR quiet
93.28
90d · ATR 6.2%/day · vol 60%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
146.26
90d · ATR 6.6%/day · vol 70%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR SETUP
123.06
90d · ATR 5.4%/day · vol 46%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 119.610003
SMCI quiet
28.40
90d · ATR 7.5%/day · vol 99%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA quiet
11.32
90d · ATR 10.0%/day · vol 107%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
HOOD SETUP
86.56
90d · ATR 7.3%/day · vol 57%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 119.440000 / sell stop 83.670000 (20-day channel)
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-08-01 · equity $-1,504.79 · max drawdown $1,866.00 of $500 kill-switch ($-1,366.00 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (36)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1891.63 → 1843.51 | time_exit | $88.79 (+0.89R) |
| 2026-08-01 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.172591 → 0.174332 | time_exit | $13.79 (+0.14R) |
| 2026-07-31 | XRP | Turtle Soup | long | 1.05257 → 1.06736 | trailing_stop | $111.92 (+1.12R) |
| 2026-07-31 | SOL | The Anti | short | 73.04 → 74.91 | protective_stop | $-120.57 (-1.21R) |
| 2026-07-29 | SOL | Turtle Soup | long | 73.4 → 73.4 | trailing_stop | $-34.70 (-0.35R) |
| 2026-07-28 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1878.17 → 1881.5 | trailing_stop | $-22.73 (-0.23R) |
| 2026-07-28 | ADA | Turtle Soup | long | 0.155366 → 0.155366 | trailing_stop | $-46.62 (-0.47R) |
| 2026-07-27 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.10726 → 1.10726 | trailing_stop | $-25.62 (-0.26R) |
| 2026-07-27 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 74.66 → 74.66 | trailing_stop | $-33.47 (-0.33R) |
| 2026-07-27 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1955.34 → 1955.34 | trailing_stop | $-105.26 (-1.05R) |
| 2026-07-27 | BTC | ID/NR4 | long | 64379.8 → 64379.8 | trailing_stop | $-54.00 (-0.54R) |
| 2026-07-27 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.166482 → 0.164033 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-135.09 (-1.35R) |
| 2026-07-26 | XRP | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 1.12832 → 1.10725 | trailing_stop | $53.74 (+0.54R) |
| 2026-07-22 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1944.48 → 1944.48 | trailing_stop | $-159.99 (-1.60R) |
| 2026-07-21 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 65513.2 → 65513.2 | trailing_stop | $-139.68 (-1.40R) |
| 2026-07-20 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 75.58 → 75.58 | trailing_stop | $-35.09 (-0.35R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1865.29 → 1865.29 | trailing_stop | $-33.75 (-0.34R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.168558 → 0.163743 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-117.94 (-1.18R) |
| 2026-07-18 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1856.49 → 1856.49 | trailing_stop | $-10.96 (-0.11R) |
| 2026-07-17 | BTC | The Anti | short | 63705 → 63907 | no_losing_overnight | $-29.51 (-0.30R) |
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-08-02)
| Market | Strategy | Side | Type | Trigger | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | The Anti | short | review_stop_order | Next session stop entry: 62200.400000 | Initial stop: 65369.900000 |
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 147 trades, net $2,513.77 · ex bad-data $2,191.58 (1 voided)
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-31 · equity $2,513.77 · max drawdown $2,163.60 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 41 | 41% | $-426.14 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 16 | 44% | $962.40 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 20 | 25% | $-470.24 | — |
| The Anti | 10 | 10% | $-103.09 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 20 | 20% | $2,744.79 | 1% |
| Turtle Trend | 40 | 45% | $-193.95 | — |
Stocks (research, observational) — 80 trades, net $712.73
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-31 · equity $712.73 · max drawdown $1,807.60 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 19 | 63% | $-108.01 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 5 | 60% | $934.92 | 8% |
| ID/NR4 | 18 | 39% | $665.14 | 25% |
| The Anti | 8 | 25% | $-60.29 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 13 | 23% | $-504.85 | 1148% |
| Turtle Trend | 17 | 47% | $-214.20 | — |
TradingView live history
loading
open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $1866.00 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | PASS | 31 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | FAIL | $-1504.79 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 36 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 4 | 50% | $-39.33 | 192% |
| ID/NR4 | 17 | 24% | $-536.12 | — |
| The Anti | 6 | 17% | $-263.15 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 9 | 11% | $-666.21 | 966% |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 30 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 892 | $38,074 | 28.1% | 2.428805 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-08-01 | 892 | $38,006 | 28.0% | 2.426258 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-31 | 891 | $38,211 | 28.0% | 2.439342 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-30 | 891 | $38,095 | 28.0% | 2.434989 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-29 | 891 | $38,070 | 28.1% | 2.43405 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-28 | 894 | $37,647 | 28.0% | 2.402267 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-27 | 892 | $38,330 | 28.4% | 2.433037 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-26 | 887 | $37,731 | 28.0% | 2.410628 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-25 | 887 | $37,751 | 28.0% | 2.411395 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-24 | 890 | $37,828 | 28.0% | 2.410999 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-23 | 889 | $37,753 | 27.9% | 2.408225 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-22 | 889 | $38,008 | 28.0% | 2.41771 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-21 | 888 | $37,875 | 28.0% | 2.412775 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-20 | 886 | $37,942 | 28.2% | 2.420569 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-19 | 884 | $37,853 | 28.1% | 2.417242 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-18 | 884 | $37,871 | 28.2% | 2.417919 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-17 | 882 | $37,865 | 28.1% | 2.418253 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-16 | 883 | $37,917 | 28.2% | 2.420206 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.