Built 2026-07-18 · gates as of 2026-07-18 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-690.38
18 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$-1,592.08
79 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$-1,428.43
33 closed trades
Review
13d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-690.38
Forward max drawdown
$844.26 / $500 limit
Forward trades
18
Daily runs logged
16
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 13 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD quiet
63,907.00
90d · ATR 3.0%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ETH/USD quiet
1,840.56
90d · ATR 4.1%/day · vol 40%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD quiet
74.98
90d · ATR 4.6%/day · vol 40%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD quiet
1.09
90d · ATR 3.8%/day · vol 32%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 6.3%/day · vol 67%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,494.75
90d · ATR 1.2%/day · vol 11%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (7494.750000)
WTI Crude Oil SETUP
81.77
90d · ATR 4.0%/day · vol 49%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 81.269997
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 82.080000 / sell stop 67.030001 (20-day channel)
Natural Gas quiet
2.92
90d · ATR 4.5%/day · vol 39%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Gold quiet
4,023.00
90d · ATR 2.0%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Silver quiet
56.22
90d · ATR 3.7%/day · vol 44%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Copper quiet
6.27
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 25%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
30-Year Treasury Bond quiet
111.31
90d · ATR 0.8%/day · vol 7%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
10-Year Treasury Note quiet
109.22
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Corn SETUP
468.25
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 35%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 468.500000 / sell stop 398.250000 (20-day channel)
Soybeans SETUP
1,202.50
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1210.250000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat SETUP
684.75
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 35%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 685.250000
Coffee quiet
321.10
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 81%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton quiet
78.93
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 33%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Sugar quiet
14.82
90d · ATR 2.7%/day · vol 28%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle SETUP
220.62
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 25%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 258.275000 / sell stop 220.475000 (20-day channel)
Lean Hogs SETUP
87.85
90d · ATR 2.0%/day · vol 52%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One long — Next session buy stop at 92.449997
Euro FX SETUP
1.15
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 4%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1.147900; sell stop 1.145000
Japanese Yen quiet
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA quiet
380.84
90d · ATR 4.8%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
NVDA SETUP
202.81
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 37%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (202.809998)
MU SETUP
848.95
90d · ATR 11.0%/day · vol 104%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (848.950012)
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1255.010000 / sell stop 803.990000 (20-day channel)
AMD SETUP
495.76
90d · ATR 7.8%/day · vol 70%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (495.760010)
MSTR quiet
94.85
90d · ATR 8.3%/day · vol 89%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
157.12
90d · ATR 6.1%/day · vol 59%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
132.38
90d · ATR 5.3%/day · vol 55%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI SETUP
24.18
90d · ATR 8.7%/day · vol 83%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 36.809999 / sell stop 23.369999 (20-day channel)
MARA SETUP
10.69
90d · ATR 12.6%/day · vol 73%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 16.440000 / sell stop 10.531300 (20-day channel)
HOOD quiet
99.96
90d · ATR 6.8%/day · vol 68%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-17 · equity $-690.38 · max drawdown $844.27 of $500 kill-switch ($-344.27 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (18)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1856.49 → 1840.56 | time_exit | $7.17 (+0.07R) |
| 2026-07-17 | BTC | The Anti | short | 63705 → 63907 | no_losing_overnight | $-29.51 (-0.30R) |
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-18)
No orders for the next session — no pattern fired. Standing aside is a position.
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 79 trades, net $-1,592.08
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-17 · equity $-1,592.08 · max drawdown $6,282.50 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 14 | 50% | $105.90 | 2% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 11 | 55% | $-1,915.61 | — |
| ID/NR4 | 13 | 15% | $-1,870.30 | — |
| The Anti | 6 | 33% | $234.93 | 1% |
| Turtle Soup | 8 | 25% | $1,588.25 | 1% |
| Turtle Trend | 27 | 52% | $264.77 | 1% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 33 trades, net $-1,428.43
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-17 · equity $-1,428.43 · max drawdown $1,764.02 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 8 | 25% | $-15.73 | 209% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 3 | 33% | $129.55 | 24% |
| ID/NR4 | 8 | 0% | $-586.78 | — |
| The Anti | 3 | 0% | $-56.79 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 5 | 0% | $-1,049.10 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 6 | 83% | $150.41 | 9% |
TradingView live history
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open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $844.26 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | pending | 16 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-690.38 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 18 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 3 | 33% | $-93.07 | — |
| ID/NR4 | 8 | 38% | $-92.22 | 202% |
| The Anti | 4 | 25% | $-213.24 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 3 | 0% | $-291.88 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 16 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 884 | $37,871 | 28.2% | 2.417919 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-17 | 882 | $37,865 | 28.1% | 2.418253 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-16 | 883 | $37,917 | 28.2% | 2.420206 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.