Built 2026-07-10 · gates as of 2026-07-10 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$210.70
4 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$1,458.95
29 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$-422.53
9 closed trades
Review
21d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$210.70
Forward max drawdown
$32.12 / $500 limit
Forward trades
4
Daily runs logged
8
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 13 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD quiet
63,174.00
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ETH/USD SETUP
1,743.93
90d · ATR 4.5%/day · vol 38%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1760.540000; sell stop 1720.730000
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1760.540000; sell stop 1720.730000
SOL/USD SETUP
77.99
90d · ATR 5.3%/day · vol 45%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 78.740000; sell stop 76.620000
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 78.740000; sell stop 76.620000
XRP/USD SETUP
1.09
90d · ATR 4.3%/day · vol 32%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1.102100; sell stop 1.082060
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 6.6%/day · vol 69%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,528.75
90d · ATR 1.4%/day · vol 15%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (7528.750000)
WTI Crude Oil quiet
73.52
90d · ATR 5.3%/day · vol 44%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Natural Gas quiet
3.21
90d · ATR 4.3%/day · vol 36%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Gold quiet
4,070.90
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 29%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Silver SETUP
58.16
90d · ATR 3.9%/day · vol 52%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 70.954997 / sell stop 57.030000 (20-day channel)
Copper SETUP
6.05
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 25%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (6.054500)
30-Year Treasury Bond SETUP
111.22
90d · ATR 0.8%/day · vol 8%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 114.656250 / sell stop 110.812500 (20-day channel)
10-Year Treasury Note SETUP
109.00
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 5%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One long — Next session buy stop at 109.062500
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 110.343750 / sell stop 108.781250 (20-day channel)
Corn quiet
434.75
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 25%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Soybeans quiet
1,195.00
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Wheat quiet
599.50
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Coffee SETUP
341.45
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 73%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 348.599988 / sell stop 244.649997 (20-day channel)
Cotton SETUP
80.32
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 32%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 77.959999
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 79.679998 / sell stop 70.650004 (20-day channel)
Sugar quiet
15.15
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 25%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle SETUP
235.30
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 25%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 258.275000 / sell stop 234.350000 (20-day channel)
Lean Hogs quiet
98.12
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Euro FX quiet
1.14
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Japanese Yen SETUP
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 0.006270 / sell stop 0.006149 (20-day channel)
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA SETUP
406.55
90d · ATR 4.7%/day · vol 61%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 407.869985
NVDA quiet
202.78
90d · ATR 3.2%/day · vol 33%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MU quiet
991.64
90d · ATR 10.0%/day · vol 118%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD quiet
546.72
90d · ATR 7.0%/day · vol 81%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR quiet
93.89
90d · ATR 9.9%/day · vol 95%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
158.44
90d · ATR 6.5%/day · vol 61%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
129.04
90d · ATR 5.2%/day · vol 58%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI quiet
28.24
90d · ATR 8.4%/day · vol 97%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA quiet
13.22
90d · ATR 10.2%/day · vol 74%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
HOOD quiet
115.11
90d · ATR 6.2%/day · vol 66%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-09 · equity $210.70 · max drawdown $32.12 of $500 kill-switch ($467.88 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (4)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 77.99 | time_exit | $77.08 (+0.77R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.166444 | time_exit | $182.61 (+1.83R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-10)
| Market | Strategy | Side | Type | Trigger | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 1760.540000; sell stop 1720.730000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| ETH | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 1760.540000; sell stop 1720.730000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 78.740000; sell stop 76.620000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| SOL | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 78.740000; sell stop 76.620000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| XRP | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 1.102100; sell stop 1.082060 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 29 trades, net $1,458.95
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-09 · equity $1,458.95 · max drawdown $256.24 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 4 | 25% | $-41.65 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 5 | 80% | $1,227.10 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 5 | 40% | $15.71 | 2% |
| The Anti | 2 | 100% | $275.80 | 0% |
| Turtle Soup | 4 | 0% | $-187.41 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 9 | 67% | $169.42 | 0% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 9 trades, net $-422.53
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-09 · equity $-422.53 · max drawdown $422.53 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 1 | 100% | $33.21 | 9% |
| ID/NR4 | 5 | 20% | $-241.05 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-134.15 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 2 | 0% | $-80.53 | — |
TradingView live history
loading
open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | PASS | $32.12 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | PASS | $-32.12 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | pending | 8 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | PASS | $210.70 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | pending | 4 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID/NR4 | 3 | 67% | $242.82 | 15% |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-32.12 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 8 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.