Built 2026-07-29 · gates as of 2026-07-29 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-1,450.68
33 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$2,499.35
113 closed trades · ex bad-data $2,536.77 (1 voided)
Stocks WATCH
$525.49
66 closed trades
Review
2d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-1,450.68
Forward max drawdown
$1,714.60 / $500 limit
Forward trades
33
Daily runs logged
27
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 31 markets scanned, 15 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD quiet
63,859.60
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ETH/USD quiet
1,919.88
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 37%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SOL/USD quiet
73.74
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 31%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD quiet
1.07
90d · ATR 3.1%/day · vol 30%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.16
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 44%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 16 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,447.50
90d · ATR 1.1%/day · vol 11%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (7447.500000)
WTI Crude Oil SETUP
82.61
90d · ATR 4.8%/day · vol 57%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (82.610001)
Natural Gas SETUP
2.87
90d · ATR 4.0%/day · vol 33%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (2.871000)
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 3.442000 / sell stop 2.822000 (20-day channel)
Gold SETUP
4,067.60
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 22%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 4068.100000; sell stop 4067.500098
Silver SETUP
58.66
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 40%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 58.660998; sell stop 58.650998
Copper SETUP
6.32
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 23%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 6.320500; sell stop 6.302000
30-Year Treasury Bond quiet
109.72
90d · ATR 0.8%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
10-Year Treasury Note quiet
108.33
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 3%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Corn SETUP
464.25
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 27%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 468.250000 / sell stop 398.250000 (20-day channel)
Soybeans SETUP
1,248.00
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1250.750000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat SETUP
678.00
90d · ATR 3.0%/day · vol 37%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (678.000000)
Sugar quiet
14.76
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle quiet
222.50
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 12%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Lean Hogs quiet
89.03
90d · ATR 1.0%/day · vol 9%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Euro FX SETUP
1.14
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 3%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1.149650 / sell stop 1.136650 (20-day channel)
Japanese Yen SETUP
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 0.006228 / sell stop 0.006109 (20-day channel)
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA SETUP
307.44
90d · ATR 5.9%/day · vol 70%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 432.869985 / sell stop 300.680094 (20-day channel)
NVDA SETUP
197.01
90d · ATR 3.8%/day · vol 38%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (197.009995)
MU SETUP
820.53
90d · ATR 9.7%/day · vol 88%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (820.530029)
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1168.690054 / sell stop 789.080027 (20-day channel)
AMD SETUP
454.62
90d · ATR 8.7%/day · vol 74%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (454.619995)
Turtle Soup Plus One long — Next session buy stop at 460.209991
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 584.739980 / sell stop 442.259989 (20-day channel)
MSTR quiet
96.16
90d · ATR 6.8%/day · vol 65%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN quiet
167.90
90d · ATR 5.8%/day · vol 64%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
PLTR quiet
123.53
90d · ATR 6.0%/day · vol 55%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI quiet
28.45
90d · ATR 7.1%/day · vol 90%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA quiet
11.38
90d · ATR 9.8%/day · vol 82%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
HOOD quiet
92.76
90d · ATR 7.5%/day · vol 69%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-28 · equity $-1,450.68 · max drawdown $1,714.60 of $500 kill-switch ($-1,214.60 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (33)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | XRP | Turtle Soup | long | 1.05257 → 1.0678 | time_exit | $117.21 (+1.17R) |
| 2026-07-28 | SOL | Turtle Soup | long | 73.4 → 73.74 | time_exit | $-3.87 (-0.04R) |
| 2026-07-28 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1878.17 → 1881.5 | trailing_stop | $-22.73 (-0.23R) |
| 2026-07-28 | ADA | Turtle Soup | long | 0.155366 → 0.155366 | trailing_stop | $-46.62 (-0.47R) |
| 2026-07-27 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.10726 → 1.10726 | trailing_stop | $-25.62 (-0.26R) |
| 2026-07-27 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 74.66 → 74.66 | trailing_stop | $-33.47 (-0.33R) |
| 2026-07-27 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1955.34 → 1955.34 | trailing_stop | $-105.26 (-1.05R) |
| 2026-07-27 | BTC | ID/NR4 | long | 64379.8 → 64379.8 | trailing_stop | $-54.00 (-0.54R) |
| 2026-07-27 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.166482 → 0.164033 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-135.09 (-1.35R) |
| 2026-07-26 | XRP | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 1.12832 → 1.10725 | trailing_stop | $53.74 (+0.54R) |
| 2026-07-22 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1944.48 → 1944.48 | trailing_stop | $-159.99 (-1.60R) |
| 2026-07-21 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 65513.2 → 65513.2 | trailing_stop | $-139.68 (-1.40R) |
| 2026-07-20 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 75.58 → 75.58 | trailing_stop | $-35.09 (-0.35R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1865.29 → 1865.29 | trailing_stop | $-33.75 (-0.34R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.168558 → 0.163743 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-117.94 (-1.18R) |
| 2026-07-18 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1856.49 → 1856.49 | trailing_stop | $-10.96 (-0.11R) |
| 2026-07-17 | BTC | The Anti | short | 63705 → 63907 | no_losing_overnight | $-29.51 (-0.30R) |
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-29)
No orders for the next session — no pattern fired. Standing aside is a position.
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 113 trades, net $2,499.35 · ex bad-data $2,536.77 (1 voided)
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-27 · equity $2,499.35 · max drawdown $1,526.45 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 31 | 42% | $-370.45 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 12 | 50% | $1,027.29 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 16 | 25% | $-294.63 | — |
| The Anti | 9 | 22% | $-76.91 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 13 | 23% | $383.79 | 5% |
| Turtle Trend | 32 | 75% | $1,830.25 | 0% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 66 trades, net $525.49
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-28 · equity $525.49 · max drawdown $1,807.60 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 17 | 41% | $-235.68 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 5 | 60% | $934.92 | 8% |
| ID/NR4 | 15 | 33% | $499.86 | 28% |
| The Anti | 8 | 25% | $-60.53 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 9 | 33% | $-521.02 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 12 | 50% | $-92.05 | — |
TradingView live history
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open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $1714.60 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | PASS | 27 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-1450.68 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 33 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 4 | 50% | $-39.33 | 192% |
| ID/NR4 | 16 | 19% | $-549.91 | — |
| The Anti | 4 | 0% | $-231.37 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 9 | 11% | $-630.09 | 657% |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 27 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 891 | $38,070 | 28.1% | 2.43405 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-28 | 894 | $37,647 | 28.0% | 2.402267 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-27 | 892 | $38,330 | 28.4% | 2.433037 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-26 | 887 | $37,731 | 28.0% | 2.410628 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-25 | 887 | $37,751 | 28.0% | 2.411395 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-24 | 890 | $37,828 | 28.0% | 2.410999 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-23 | 889 | $37,753 | 27.9% | 2.408225 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-22 | 889 | $38,008 | 28.0% | 2.41771 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-21 | 888 | $37,875 | 28.0% | 2.412775 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-20 | 886 | $37,942 | 28.2% | 2.420569 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-19 | 884 | $37,853 | 28.1% | 2.417242 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-18 | 884 | $37,871 | 28.2% | 2.417919 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-17 | 882 | $37,865 | 28.1% | 2.418253 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-16 | 883 | $37,917 | 28.2% | 2.420206 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.