Built 2026-07-08 · gates as of 2026-07-08 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$68.83
2 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$181.24
13 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$-95.69
6 closed trades
Review
23d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$68.83
Forward max drawdown
$32.12 / $500 limit
Forward trades
2
Daily runs logged
6
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 15 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD quiet
63,304.00
90d · ATR 3.4%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ETH/USD SETUP
1,769.69
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 38%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1810.530000; sell stop 1756.390000
SOL/USD SETUP
80.50
90d · ATR 5.2%/day · vol 45%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 82.740000; sell stop 80.290000
XRP/USD quiet
1.11
90d · ATR 4.1%/day · vol 32%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 6.2%/day · vol 67%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,591.50
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 15%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 7602.750000 / sell stop 7232.000000 (20-day channel)
WTI Crude Oil SETUP
68.55
90d · ATR 5.7%/day · vol 38%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 69.219999; sell stop 67.810000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 95.480001 / sell stop 67.030001 (20-day channel)
Natural Gas quiet
3.24
90d · ATR 4.1%/day · vol 37%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Gold quiet
4,155.10
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 29%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Silver SETUP
61.92
90d · ATR 3.7%/day · vol 52%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 62.624999; sell stop 61.629998
Copper quiet
6.18
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 25%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
30-Year Treasury Bond quiet
112.38
90d · ATR 0.7%/day · vol 8%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
10-Year Treasury Note SETUP
109.64
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 109.796875; sell stop 109.500000
Corn SETUP
440.75
90d · ATR 2.1%/day · vol 24%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 431.500000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 441.750000 / sell stop 398.250000 (20-day channel)
Soybeans SETUP
1,182.25
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 1155.250000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1186.750000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat quiet
606.00
90d · ATR 2.6%/day · vol 22%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Coffee quiet
317.40
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 81%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
80.68
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 40%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 77.959999
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 79.679998 / sell stop 70.650004 (20-day channel)
Sugar quiet
15.10
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle SETUP
238.35
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 26%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 258.275000 / sell stop 237.025003 (20-day channel)
Lean Hogs quiet
96.93
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 23%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Euro FX SETUP
1.14
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 5%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1.144850; sell stop 1.141100
Japanese Yen quiet
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA quiet
402.90
90d · ATR 5.0%/day · vol 62%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
NVDA quiet
196.93
90d · ATR 3.4%/day · vol 33%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MU quiet
938.38
90d · ATR 10.9%/day · vol 118%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD quiet
516.11
90d · ATR 7.7%/day · vol 83%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR quiet
97.36
90d · ATR 10.0%/day · vol 98%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN SETUP
163.51
90d · ATR 6.6%/day · vol 62%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 170.105093; sell stop 161.680002
PLTR quiet
134.37
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 58%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI SETUP
26.25
90d · ATR 12.1%/day · vol 149%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 44.960001 / sell stop 25.395001 (20-day channel)
MARA SETUP
12.05
90d · ATR 11.1%/day · vol 69%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 16.440000 / sell stop 11.730000 (20-day channel)
HOOD SETUP
112.90
90d · ATR 6.6%/day · vol 67%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 117.859998; sell stop 112.519999
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-07 · equity $68.83 · max drawdown $32.12 of $500 kill-switch ($467.88 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (2)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.174365 | time_exit | $100.95 (+1.01R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-08)
| Market | Strategy | Side | Type | Trigger | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 1810.530000; sell stop 1756.390000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| SOL | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 82.740000; sell stop 80.290000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 13 trades, net $181.24
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-07 · equity $181.24 · max drawdown $131.94 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 1 | 0% | $-9.10 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 2 | 0% | $-41.62 | — |
| ID/NR4 | 2 | 0% | $-39.89 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 2 | 50% | $187.56 | 0% |
| Turtle Trend | 6 | 50% | $84.26 | 1% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 6 trades, net $-95.69
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-07 · equity $-95.69 · max drawdown $160.08 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID/NR4 | 3 | 33% | $-133.16 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 100% | $43.17 | 44% |
| Turtle Trend | 2 | 50% | $-5.69 | — |
TradingView live history
loading
open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | PASS | $32.12 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | PASS | $-32.12 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | pending | 6 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | PASS | $68.83 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | pending | 2 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID/NR4 | 1 | 100% | $100.95 | 9% |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-32.12 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 6 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.