Built 2026-07-26 · gates as of 2026-07-26 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-1,104.50
24 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$2,632.71
119 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$805.97
52 closed trades
Review
5d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-1,104.50
Forward max drawdown
$1,341.68 / $500 limit
Forward trades
24
Daily runs logged
24
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 23 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD SETUP
64,312.90
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 25%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 64379.800000; sell stop 63759.900000
ETH/USD SETUP
1,873.37
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 33%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1878.170000; sell stop 1849.820000
SOL/USD SETUP
74.47
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 29%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 74.660000; sell stop 73.500000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 83.660000 / sell stop 73.310000 (20-day channel)
XRP/USD SETUP
1.10
90d · ATR 3.0%/day · vol 28%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1.107260; sell stop 1.084790
ADA/USD quiet
0.16
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 42%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 SETUP
7,447.50
90d · ATR 1.1%/day · vol 11%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (7447.500000)
WTI Crude Oil quiet
89.31
90d · ATR 4.1%/day · vol 47%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Natural Gas SETUP
2.87
90d · ATR 4.0%/day · vol 33%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 3.442000 / sell stop 2.822000 (20-day channel)
Gold SETUP
4,067.60
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 22%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 4068.100000; sell stop 4067.500098
Silver SETUP
58.66
90d · ATR 3.3%/day · vol 40%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 58.660998; sell stop 58.650998
Copper SETUP
6.32
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 23%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 6.320500; sell stop 6.302000
30-Year Treasury Bond quiet
109.72
90d · ATR 0.8%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
10-Year Treasury Note quiet
108.33
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 3%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Corn SETUP
464.25
90d · ATR 2.3%/day · vol 27%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 468.250000 / sell stop 398.250000 (20-day channel)
Soybeans SETUP
1,248.00
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1250.750000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat SETUP
678.00
90d · ATR 3.0%/day · vol 37%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (678.000000)
Coffee quiet
313.80
90d · ATR 4.4%/day · vol 84%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
78.55
90d · ATR 1.9%/day · vol 30%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (78.550003)
Sugar quiet
14.77
90d · ATR 2.5%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle quiet
227.07
90d · ATR 1.5%/day · vol 12%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Lean Hogs SETUP
102.85
90d · ATR 0.9%/day · vol 9%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 102.375000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 103.075003 / sell stop 97.574991 (20-day channel)
Euro FX SETUP
1.14
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 1.140750; sell stop 1.137750
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1.149650 / sell stop 1.136350 (20-day channel)
Japanese Yen SETUP
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 0.006121; sell stop 0.006113
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 0.006121; sell stop 0.006113
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 0.006228 / sell stop 0.006109 (20-day channel)
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA SETUP
313.03
90d · ATR 6.3%/day · vol 79%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 432.869985 / sell stop 306.500010 (20-day channel)
NVDA SETUP
206.84
90d · ATR 3.5%/day · vol 35%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (206.839996)
MU quiet
920.95
90d · ATR 8.5%/day · vol 84%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD SETUP
521.95
90d · ATR 7.4%/day · vol 73%/yr
Connors RSI2 long — Buy at/near the close (521.950012)
MSTR quiet
91.67
90d · ATR 7.6%/day · vol 77%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
COIN SETUP
158.29
90d · ATR 6.1%/day · vol 63%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 153.790003
PLTR SETUP
122.92
90d · ATR 5.4%/day · vol 45%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 125.319998; sell stop 122.009997
SMCI quiet
30.10
90d · ATR 6.7%/day · vol 94%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MARA SETUP
12.12
90d · ATR 9.4%/day · vol 81%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 12.740000; sell stop 12.110000
HOOD SETUP
94.91
90d · ATR 7.0%/day · vol 69%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 93.019999
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 120.060003 / sell stop 93.019999 (20-day channel)
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-25 · equity $-1,104.50 · max drawdown $1,341.68 of $500 kill-switch ($-841.68 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (24)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | XRP | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 1.12832 → 1.09685 | time_exit | $90.47 (+0.90R) |
| 2026-07-22 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1944.48 → 1944.48 | trailing_stop | $-159.99 (-1.60R) |
| 2026-07-21 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 65513.2 → 65513.2 | trailing_stop | $-139.68 (-1.40R) |
| 2026-07-20 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 75.58 → 75.58 | trailing_stop | $-35.09 (-0.35R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1865.29 → 1865.29 | trailing_stop | $-33.75 (-0.34R) |
| 2026-07-20 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.168558 → 0.163743 | ambiguous_whipsaw_loss | $-117.94 (-1.18R) |
| 2026-07-18 | ETH | The Anti | short | 1856.49 → 1856.49 | trailing_stop | $-10.96 (-0.11R) |
| 2026-07-17 | BTC | The Anti | short | 63705 → 63907 | no_losing_overnight | $-29.51 (-0.30R) |
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-26)
| Market | Strategy | Side | Type | Trigger | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 64379.800000; sell stop 63759.900000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| ETH | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 1878.170000; sell stop 1849.820000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| SOL | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 74.660000; sell stop 73.500000 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
| XRP | ID/NR4 | long | oco_breakout | Next session OCO: buy stop 1.107260; sell stop 1.084790 | Opposite side of ID/NR4 bar is the initial stop/reversal level. |
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 119 trades, net $2,632.71
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-24 · equity $2,632.71 · max drawdown $1,686.77 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 33 | 48% | $-54.04 | — |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 10 | 60% | $1,227.26 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 18 | 28% | $-34.89 | — |
| The Anti | 10 | 20% | $-66.66 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 13 | 15% | $131.11 | 14% |
| Turtle Trend | 35 | 69% | $1,429.91 | 0% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 52 trades, net $805.97
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-24 · equity $805.97 · max drawdown $1,807.60 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 11 | 64% | $103.40 | 30% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 5 | 60% | $1,028.25 | 7% |
| ID/NR4 | 13 | 31% | $360.17 | 32% |
| The Anti | 7 | 43% | $17.98 | 67% |
| Turtle Soup | 7 | 29% | $-459.13 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 9 | 11% | $-244.72 | — |
TradingView live history
loading
open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $1341.68 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | PASS | 24 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-1104.50 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 24 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 4 | 50% | $-2.60 | 103% |
| ID/NR4 | 11 | 27% | $-279.00 | — |
| The Anti | 4 | 0% | $-231.37 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 5 | 0% | $-591.55 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 24 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | 887 | $37,731 | 28.0% | 2.410628 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-25 | 887 | $37,751 | 28.0% | 2.411395 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-24 | 890 | $37,828 | 28.0% | 2.410999 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-23 | 889 | $37,753 | 27.9% | 2.408225 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-22 | 889 | $38,008 | 28.0% | 2.41771 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-21 | 888 | $37,875 | 28.0% | 2.412775 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-20 | 886 | $37,942 | 28.2% | 2.420569 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-19 | 884 | $37,853 | 28.1% | 2.417242 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-18 | 884 | $37,871 | 28.2% | 2.417919 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-17 | 882 | $37,865 | 28.1% | 2.418253 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-16 | 883 | $37,917 | 28.2% | 2.420206 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.