Built 2026-07-15 · gates as of 2026-07-15 ·
goal #1: don't lose money
Crypto GATED
$-668.05
16 closed trades
Futures WATCH
$4,216.48
53 closed trades
Stocks WATCH
$-426.88
12 closed trades
Review
16d
until 2026-07-31
Forward net P&L (after fees)
$-668.05
Forward max drawdown
$814.76 / $500 limit
Forward trades
16
Daily runs logged
13
Go/no-go review
2026-07-31
Phase
2 — paper (no real money)
Markets desk — 33 markets scanned, 18 with live setups
Crypto (frozen forward test) — 5 markets
BTC/USD SETUP
64,977.20
90d · ATR 3.0%/day · vol 27%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 64675.000000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 65056.400000 / sell stop 57739.900000 (20-day channel)
ETH/USD SETUP
1,890.06
90d · ATR 3.9%/day · vol 37%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1895.440000 / sell stop 1509.990000 (20-day channel)
SOL/USD quiet
77.82
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 44%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
XRP/USD quiet
1.11
90d · ATR 3.8%/day · vol 31%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
ADA/USD quiet
0.17
90d · ATR 6.3%/day · vol 67%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Futures (research) — 18 markets
E-mini S&P 500 quiet
7,563.00
90d · ATR 1.3%/day · vol 13%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
WTI Crude Oil quiet
78.14
90d · ATR 4.7%/day · vol 55%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Natural Gas SETUP
2.90
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 42%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 3.442000 / sell stop 2.846000 (20-day channel)
Gold SETUP
3,997.00
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 26%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 4377.100000 / sell stop 3962.400000 (20-day channel)
Silver SETUP
57.63
90d · ATR 3.8%/day · vol 49%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 70.954997 / sell stop 57.030000 (20-day channel)
Copper quiet
6.23
90d · ATR 1.8%/day · vol 25%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
30-Year Treasury Bond SETUP
110.72
90d · ATR 0.7%/day · vol 8%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 110.531250
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 114.656250 / sell stop 110.531250 (20-day channel)
10-Year Treasury Note SETUP
108.70
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 4%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One long — Next session buy stop at 108.796875
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 110.343750 / sell stop 108.593750 (20-day channel)
Corn quiet
437.75
90d · ATR 2.2%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Soybeans SETUP
1,202.00
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 20%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 1208.250000 / sell stop 1098.500000 (20-day channel)
Wheat quiet
627.00
90d · ATR 2.4%/day · vol 27%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Coffee quiet
327.00
90d · ATR 4.9%/day · vol 83%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Cotton SETUP
81.68
90d · ATR 2.1%/day · vol 32%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 81.090002 / sell stop 70.650004 (20-day channel)
Sugar quiet
14.92
90d · ATR 2.6%/day · vol 26%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Live Cattle SETUP
231.57
90d · ATR 1.6%/day · vol 25%/yr
The Anti short — Next session stop entry: 231.225000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 258.275000 / sell stop 231.225000 (20-day channel)
Lean Hogs SETUP
98.40
90d · ATR 1.2%/day · vol 18%/yr
Turtle Soup Plus One short — Next session sell stop at 98.250000
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 98.974997 / sell stop 92.424997 (20-day channel)
Euro FX quiet
1.14
90d · ATR 0.5%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Japanese Yen quiet
0.01
90d · ATR 0.4%/day · vol 5%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
Stocks (research) — 10 markets
TSLA SETUP
396.18
90d · ATR 4.6%/day · vol 59%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 402.230001; sell stop 394.750010
NVDA SETUP
211.80
90d · ATR 3.2%/day · vol 38%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 214.000005 / sell stop 189.790003 (20-day channel)
MU quiet
983.12
90d · ATR 9.6%/day · vol 107%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
AMD quiet
548.13
90d · ATR 6.7%/day · vol 74%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
MSTR SETUP
97.58
90d · ATR 8.7%/day · vol 92%/yr
The Anti long — Next session stop entry: 98.039999
COIN SETUP
161.50
90d · ATR 6.0%/day · vol 56%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 162.274999; sell stop 157.240000
PLTR quiet
133.72
90d · ATR 5.3%/day · vol 56%/yr
No setup — stand aside.
SMCI SETUP
27.65
90d · ATR 7.7%/day · vol 90%/yr
Historical Volatility Crabel long — Next session OCO: buy stop 28.139999; sell stop 27.310000
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 28.139999; sell stop 27.310000
MARA SETUP
12.16
90d · ATR 10.9%/day · vol 68%/yr
Turtle Trend long — Buy stop 16.440000 / sell stop 11.580000 (20-day channel)
HOOD SETUP
113.45
90d · ATR 6.2%/day · vol 64%/yr
ID/NR4 long — Next session OCO: buy stop 113.700002; sell stop 109.085001
Forward equity (net of fees, since 2026-07-04)
2026-07-04 → 2026-07-14 · equity $-668.05 · max drawdown $814.76 of $500 kill-switch ($-314.76 of room left) · red shading = drawdown from peak
Trade blotter — every closed forward trade (16)
| Closed | Market | Strategy | Side | Entry → Exit | Why exited | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | short | 76.71 → 76.71 | trailing_stop | $-19.27 (-0.19R) |
| 2026-07-14 | ETH | Turtle Soup | short | 1834.67 → 1834.67 | trailing_stop | $-92.27 (-0.92R) |
| 2026-07-14 | BTC | Turtle Soup | short | 64674.3 → 64977.2 | no_losing_overnight | $-167.49 (-1.67R) |
| 2026-07-13 | ETH | The Anti | long | 1825 → 1774.65 | no_losing_overnight | $-66.34 (-0.66R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | The Anti | long | 64241 → 62895 | protective_stop | $-124.56 (-1.25R) |
| 2026-07-13 | BTC | ID/NR4 | short | 63779.4 → 63779.4 | trailing_stop | $-50.01 (-0.50R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | ID/NR4 | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ETH | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 1760.54 → 1785.53 | trailing_stop | $39.61 (+0.40R) |
| 2026-07-12 | ADA | ID/NR4 | long | 0.169715 → 0.165045 | protective_stop | $-118.64 (-1.19R) |
| 2026-07-11 | XRP | ID/NR4 | long | 1.1021 → 1.1021 | trailing_stop | $-28.60 (-0.29R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | ID/NR4 | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | SOL | Historical Volatility Crabel | long | 78.74 → 76.74 | no_losing_overnight | $-113.41 (-1.13R) |
| 2026-07-11 | ADA | ID/NR4 | short | 0.185117 → 0.169714 | trailing_stop | $148.90 (+1.49R) |
| 2026-07-10 | SOL | ID/NR4 | short | 80.29 → 78.73 | trailing_stop | $46.80 (+0.47R) |
| 2026-07-09 | ETH | ID/NR4 | short | 1756.39 → 1756.39 | trailing_stop | $-16.87 (-0.17R) |
| 2026-07-04 | ADA | Turtle Soup | short | 0.189778 → 0.191998 | range_expansion_exit | $-32.12 (-0.32R) |
The book's rule (Ch 23): write down every trade. This ledger is the go/no-go evidence — after fees, nothing hidden.
Next-session orders (2026-07-15)
| Market | Strategy | Side | Type | Trigger | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Turtle Soup Plus One | short | stop_order | Next session sell stop at 64675.000000 | Initial stop above setup high: 65056.400000 |
Other platforms — futures & stocks (research, observational)
Same strategies (plus RSI2 and Turtle Trend) run forward on 18 futures and 10 volatile stocks. Not gated, not real money — this is where you watch "how much could an individual get" across every market, honestly, net of a conservative 0.26%/side fee. It fills in as trades close.
Futures (research, observational) — 53 trades, net $4,216.48
2026-07-06 → 2026-07-14 · equity $4,216.48 · max drawdown $500.72 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 9 | 67% | $188.55 | 0% |
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 9 | 78% | $2,947.62 | 0% |
| ID/NR4 | 9 | 56% | $998.14 | 0% |
| The Anti | 1 | 0% | $-0.00 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 7 | 14% | $-230.12 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 18 | 72% | $312.33 | 1% |
Stocks (research, observational) — 12 trades, net $-426.88
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-14 · equity $-426.88 · max drawdown $442.55 (observational — no kill-switch) · red shading = drawdown from peak
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connors RSI2 | 3 | 100% | $80.74 | 12% |
| ID/NR4 | 5 | 0% | $-317.31 | — |
| The Anti | 1 | 0% | $-24.30 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 1 | 0% | $-134.15 | — |
| Turtle Trend | 2 | 0% | $-31.86 | — |
TradingView live history
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open live log
| Received | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Action | Trigger | Stop | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live webhook signals... | |||||||
This is the same Cloudflare Worker used by TradingView webhooks.
Capital-preservation gates
| Gate | Status | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| G0 hard: gated code unchanged since freeze | PASS | dfd8f9f15efe |
| G0b hard: newest gated bar <= 2d old | PASS | 1d (BTC) |
| G1 hard: forward max drawdown <= $500 | FAIL | $814.76 |
| G2 hard: worst single trade loss <= $150 | FAIL | $-167.49 |
| G3 review: >= 18 daily runs | pending | 13 |
| G4 review: net pnl after fees >= $0 | pending | $-668.05 |
| G5 review: trade count in (10, 80) | PASS | 16 |
Hard gates stop the project immediately. Review gates decide go/no-go for real money on 2026-07-31. Thresholds only tighten.
Strategy P&L — forward period only
| Strategy | Trades | Win % | Net P&L | Fee drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Volatility Crabel | 3 | 33% | $-93.07 | — |
| ID/NR4 | 8 | 38% | $-92.22 | 202% |
| The Anti | 2 | 0% | $-190.90 | — |
| Turtle Soup | 3 | 0% | $-291.88 | — |
Fee drag = fees paid ÷ gross profit, on winning strategies only. A strategy losing overall shows "—" here — it's already failing gate G4 on its own.
Daily snapshots (rolling 720-day backtest, last 13 runs)
| Date | Trades | Total P&L | Win % | PF | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 888 | $37,717 | 28.0% | 2.40221 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-14 | 887 | $38,536 | 28.3% | 2.436899 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-13 | 886 | $37,909 | 28.2% | 2.415401 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-12 | 884 | $37,928 | 28.2% | 2.417118 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-11 | 884 | $38,228 | 28.3% | 2.439783 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-10 | 879 | $38,137 | 28.1% | 2.439773 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-09 | 879 | $38,167 | 28.2% | 2.440922 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-08 | 877 | $37,962 | 28.1% | 2.433154 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-07 | 879 | $37,662 | 28.0% | 2.411188 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-06 | 879 | $38,295 | 28.0% | 2.43491 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-05 | 881 | $38,353 | 28.0% | 2.437084 | $-2,665 |
| 2026-07-04 | 764 | $49,892 | 32.3% | 4.333695 | $-1,665 |
| 2026-07-03 | 764 | $51,234 | 32.5% | 4.425153 | $-1,660 |
Whole-history context, not forward performance — the KPIs above are the truth.
Live trading (Phase 3 — locked)
Real-money controls appear here only after all gates PASS at review. The broker adapter ships with fixed kill switches: $100 risk/trade, max 2 positions, 48h halt at −3R day, full stop at 10R drawdown. Until then this system trades paper only — by design.